Chris Leben takes on Brian Stann at UFC 125 on New Years Day in a middleweight bought. Leben is the favorite at -160 in UFC 125 odds, but this is a close matchup in a card that is full of close matchups that could go either way.

Chris Leben in his interview warns Stann against standing up against him and usually any fight with Leben in it will feature some pretty serious damage on one side or another.

Brian Stann figures that Leben is underestimating him, but that’s fine with him. This is a big fight for him and a win would establish him as a top tier fighter in the UFC middleweight division.

Really this fight comes to how Stann can deal with Leben’s relentless attack. They both bring power, but Leben’s style seems to challenge many fighters. Regardless of the result, this fight has a good chance at being the FOTN with two brawlers looking for the KO.

UFC 125 goes on January 1 featuring lightweights Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar in a lightweight title bout.

Edgar may be the champion, but the undefeated Maynard already has a victory over Edgar and is the early favorite in UFC 125 Manyard Edgar odds to take the belt.

UFC 124 was okay for me as I picked some big upsets not really planning on being right on every one, just right on enough of them.

I obviously lost on Josh Koscheck at +350, but I was right about Mac Danzig‘s (+250) stand-up being good enough to get the upset against fighters who are primarily known for their ground game.

Thiago Alvez came through for me, although at -280 it’s not like that fight was worth much, and Jim Miller (+100) also came through, but picking Sean McCorkle at +120 obviously wasn’t the best move.

I finished the night up 1.36 units going 3-2 in my picks.

Stefan Struve prepares for his heavyweight bout with Sean McCorkle at UFC 124.

UFC 124 goes this Saturday in Montreal, Quebec with a welterweight title belt between Georges St. Pierre and Josh Koscheck as the main event. Here’s what I think of the main card. The UFC odds list GSP as a prohibitive favorite in the main event as he has been on a dominant run and already has a win over Koscheck.

Thiago Alves (17-7) VS. John Howard (14-5)

Thiago Alves is coming off of two losses that removed him from welterweight title contention and a third loss could move him down to gatekeeper in the division or, more likely given his problems making weight, signal a move up to middleweight.
John Howard suffered his first setback at the UFC last time out losing by Doctor Stoppage to Jake Ellenberger at UFC Live 2.

Stylistically these fighters are quite similar with both being dangerous knockout threats thanks to a background in Muay Thai and both using BJJ primarily to stay out of trouble on the ground. Howard’s stand-up isn’t on the level of Alves though and, while Alves might be better suited to middleweight, Howard isn’t the fighter to stop him. This fight also has a good chance of getting the knockout of the night award.

Pick: Alves (-280)

Mac Danzig (19-8-1) VS. Joe Stevenson (31-11)

Both Mac Danzig and Joe “Daddy” Stevenson were once considered to be potential stars in the UFC’s lightweight division, but both are in desperate need of a win just to keep their jobs. Both of these fighters excel at the ground game.

Stevenson has better and more wins at the UFC, but Danzig has had some success standing up against fighters with similarly strong ground games which makes him worth the risk for a big upset.

Pick: Danzig (+250)

Jim Miller (18-2) VS. Charles “do Bronx” Oliveira (14-0)

Charles “do Bronx” Oliveira lived up to the hype of his first two fights at the UFC by demolishing Efrain Escudero and Darren Elkins, but he faces by far his toughest competition in Jim Miller.

Oliveira has mostly shown himself to be a submission threat at the UFC, but his stand up is dangerous too and he can match up with a well-rounded fighter like Jim Miller.

There is a long history of young fighters like Oliveira getting built up by the fan hype machine and then falling short. Oliveira will be a top fighter in the UFC lightweight division, but that doesn’t mean that he will get there without a few losses first.

Experience likely wins out in this fight, but the value is on the underdog since we don’t really know much about Oliveira yet.

Pick: Miller (+100)

Sean “Big Sexy” McCorkle (10-0) VS. Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve (20-4)

The only heavyweight fight on the main card features Sean “Big Sexy” McCorkle taking on Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve.
These are two of the tallest heavyweights in the UFC and both of these fighters are best on the ground. Struve has beaten all of the lesser fighters he has faced, but couldn’t handle the striking big-name heavyweights Roy Nelson and Junior dos Santos.

It will be interesting how Struve deals with the size and strength of McCorkle. McCorkle isn’t anywhere near the striking threat as Nelson and dos Santos, but he might not need it being able to overpower Struve in the submission game.

Struve is going to score some points with his superior reach and control most of the fight, but I think McCorkle’s power matches up well with Struve’s technique and he scores the big upset winning by submission.

Pick: McCorkle (+120)

UFC 124 Main Event: Georges “Rush” St. Pierre VS. Josh “Kos” Koscheck

GSP already has a victory over Josh Koscheck and has dominated the welterweight division since then. He is the massive favorite going in and deserves to be because, as much as Koscheck’s game has improved since his first loss to GSP, GSP his improved even more.

Standing up, GSP is too dynamic and unpredictable while Koscheck is just the opposite. On the ground, GSP has already shown he can outwrestle the wrestling specialist.

Having said that, this is a fight, not a walk in the park and all the value in this fight is in Koscheck who pays +350. If betting on Koscheck is against your religion, skip this one altogether.

Pick: Koscheck (+300)

Two fighters coming off of tough losses meet at UFC 123 as light-heavyweights Lyoto Machida and Quinton Jackson get set to meet in the octagon on Saturday, November 20 in Detroit, Michigan on Pay Per View.

The UFC odds list Rampage as a heavy underdog paying +220 while Machida pays just -280.

Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida is an elusive fighter who cautiously probes his opponents looking for an opening until he sees his chance to end the fight. He spends a lot of time retreating from his opponents and is a rare Karate practitioner in MMA.

Machida is coming off of a first KO loss to Mauricio Rua at UFC 113 that saw him lose the Light Heavyweight Championship title. The fight was close with both fighters scoring points through striking and Machida scoring a takedown. The fight ended when Rua countered a Machida left hook dazing the champion enough to seize a full mount and ground-and-pound him until being awarded the KO.

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson is the kind of straight-forward striker that Machida has beaten handily on a number of occasions. Still, Machida’s lone loss was a KO that came as a result of stand up technique so he is not invulnerable.
Jackson’s last fight was a loss to rival Rashad Evans at UFC 114 for a shot at Rua and the Light Heavyweight Championship title. Evans and Jackson had been feuding since they both appeared as coaches on TUF season 10.

This fight is Machida’s fight to lose. Whenever he enters the ring, he is in control and only a mistake by him can change that. While he is not invulnerable, I wouldn’t bet on him making too many mistakes even against someone like Jackson who has the power to turn a single mistake in to a victory.

UFC 123 pre-fight interviews with Rampage Jackson and Lyoto Machida.

The best part of the Rampage interview comes when he takes a dig at Machida’s unexciting style saying, ”I just hope Machida comes to fight and consider the fans and put on an exciting fight.”

Machida’s interview is about as exciting as his fights. He follows his plan saying pretty much exactly what you would expect from him. “There is a lot that can be said until the Octagon gates lock. Once the gate is locked, anything can happen.”

Machida is heavily favored in UFC lines paying at -280 while Jackson pays +220.

UFC 123 features Quinton Jackson going up against Lyoto Machida in a light-heavyweight matchup that features the raw, devastating power of Rampage going up against the sublime skills of Machida.

The home soil headliner at UFC 122 in Germany will be Peter Sobotta taking on Amir Sadollah in a welterweight match on November 13, 2010.

Sobotta still doesn’t have a win at the UFC against underwhelming opposition while Sadollah has shown steady improvement since winning TUF season 7. Sadollah is a strong favorite with the UFC odds paying -365 while the German Sobotta pays +285.

After beating a number of more experienced fighters, Amir Sadollah (3-2-0 MMA, 3-2 UFC) pulled off an upset over C.B. Dollaway to emerge as the champion from TUF season 7. At TUF, it was his submission ability that made him dangerous, but he has since expanded his repertory learning Muay Thai to improve his stand-up game and training with the best.

His opponent Peter Sobotta (8-3-0 MMA, 0-2 UFC) will likely need a win to stay in the UFC. He acquitted himself well in two decision losses, but the losses came to other largely unknown fighters and likely the only reason he is still in the UFC is because they needed a German fighter to drum up interest.

Stylistically these are very similar fighters with both fighters being solid in all areas without excelling in any. Sadollah is, however, the more polished fighter and should win this fight easily.

While the fighters are on their feet, Sadollah enjoys his biggest advantage. Sobotta is a competent striker with some power, but Sadollah is faster and better trained. He probably won’t be able to knock out the German, but he will likely land flurries of punches when Sobotta is just landing single blows.

To win the fight Sobotta will need to get the fight on the ground like Donh Hyn Kim did in his victory over Sadollah. However, Kim is a better wrestler than Sadollah and he is bigger and stronger. Sadollah’s take down defense wasn’t good enough for Kim the wrestling specialist. But for Sobotta, who lacks the size, strength and skill of Kim, it should be more than adequate.

Even if Sobotta gets the fight on the ground, he won’t be able to keep it there as Sadollah’s BJJ makes him dangerous to get some more space against similarly built fighters.

Expect the fighters to stay on their feet with both sides landing blows, but Sadollah should hold enough of an advantage to win by decision.

UFC 121 goes on Saturday, October 23 in Anaheim featuring one of the most anticipated heavyweight fights of all time with Cain Velasquez challenging Brock Lesnar for the title. The UFC previews the Velasquez-Lesnar fight along with Jake Shilds and Martin Kampmann in the video.

The UFC 121 odds list Lesnar as the favorite at -155 while Velasquez is listed at +125. Shields is heavily favored at -260 to Kampmann’s +200.