UFC 124 was okay for me as I picked some big upsets not really planning on being right on every one, just right on enough of them.

I obviously lost on Josh Koscheck at +350, but I was right about Mac Danzig‘s (+250) stand-up being good enough to get the upset against fighters who are primarily known for their ground game.

Thiago Alvez came through for me, although at -280 it’s not like that fight was worth much, and Jim Miller (+100) also came through, but picking Sean McCorkle at +120 obviously wasn’t the best move.

I finished the night up 1.36 units going 3-2 in my picks.

UFC 124 goes this Saturday in Montreal, Quebec with a welterweight title belt between Georges St. Pierre and Josh Koscheck as the main event. Here’s what I think of the main card. The UFC odds list GSP as a prohibitive favorite in the main event as he has been on a dominant run and already has a win over Koscheck.

Thiago Alves (17-7) VS. John Howard (14-5)

Thiago Alves is coming off of two losses that removed him from welterweight title contention and a third loss could move him down to gatekeeper in the division or, more likely given his problems making weight, signal a move up to middleweight.
John Howard suffered his first setback at the UFC last time out losing by Doctor Stoppage to Jake Ellenberger at UFC Live 2.

Stylistically these fighters are quite similar with both being dangerous knockout threats thanks to a background in Muay Thai and both using BJJ primarily to stay out of trouble on the ground. Howard’s stand-up isn’t on the level of Alves though and, while Alves might be better suited to middleweight, Howard isn’t the fighter to stop him. This fight also has a good chance of getting the knockout of the night award.

Pick: Alves (-280)

Mac Danzig (19-8-1) VS. Joe Stevenson (31-11)

Both Mac Danzig and Joe “Daddy” Stevenson were once considered to be potential stars in the UFC’s lightweight division, but both are in desperate need of a win just to keep their jobs. Both of these fighters excel at the ground game.

Stevenson has better and more wins at the UFC, but Danzig has had some success standing up against fighters with similarly strong ground games which makes him worth the risk for a big upset.

Pick: Danzig (+250)

Jim Miller (18-2) VS. Charles “do Bronx” Oliveira (14-0)

Charles “do Bronx” Oliveira lived up to the hype of his first two fights at the UFC by demolishing Efrain Escudero and Darren Elkins, but he faces by far his toughest competition in Jim Miller.

Oliveira has mostly shown himself to be a submission threat at the UFC, but his stand up is dangerous too and he can match up with a well-rounded fighter like Jim Miller.

There is a long history of young fighters like Oliveira getting built up by the fan hype machine and then falling short. Oliveira will be a top fighter in the UFC lightweight division, but that doesn’t mean that he will get there without a few losses first.

Experience likely wins out in this fight, but the value is on the underdog since we don’t really know much about Oliveira yet.

Pick: Miller (+100)

Sean “Big Sexy” McCorkle (10-0) VS. Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve (20-4)

The only heavyweight fight on the main card features Sean “Big Sexy” McCorkle taking on Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve.
These are two of the tallest heavyweights in the UFC and both of these fighters are best on the ground. Struve has beaten all of the lesser fighters he has faced, but couldn’t handle the striking big-name heavyweights Roy Nelson and Junior dos Santos.

It will be interesting how Struve deals with the size and strength of McCorkle. McCorkle isn’t anywhere near the striking threat as Nelson and dos Santos, but he might not need it being able to overpower Struve in the submission game.

Struve is going to score some points with his superior reach and control most of the fight, but I think McCorkle’s power matches up well with Struve’s technique and he scores the big upset winning by submission.

Pick: McCorkle (+120)

UFC 124 Main Event: Georges “Rush” St. Pierre VS. Josh “Kos” Koscheck

GSP already has a victory over Josh Koscheck and has dominated the welterweight division since then. He is the massive favorite going in and deserves to be because, as much as Koscheck’s game has improved since his first loss to GSP, GSP his improved even more.

Standing up, GSP is too dynamic and unpredictable while Koscheck is just the opposite. On the ground, GSP has already shown he can outwrestle the wrestling specialist.

Having said that, this is a fight, not a walk in the park and all the value in this fight is in Koscheck who pays +350. If betting on Koscheck is against your religion, skip this one altogether.

Pick: Koscheck (+300)

The highlight of UFC 113 was definitely the redemption of Mauricio Rua. He left no doubt as to who deserves the light-heavyweight title in his fight with Lyoto Machida. But there was plenty more drama including Paul Daley doing his best to end his own career with a cheap shot after his fight with Josh Koscheck ended and Kimbo Slice dropping a bout to someone he was supposed to easily win.

Next up is UFC 114 headlined by Rashad Evans and Quinton Jackson. Rampage is the early favorite, but at -125 this is one of the closest UFC odds matchups ever.

Paul Daley and Josh Koscheck didn’t really have any reason to not like each other, but a healthy dose of two-way trash talk  is making it certain that they will hate each other when they take to the octagon for UFC 113.

Daley doesn’t respect Koscheck’s fighting style saying pretty much that wrestlers can’t hack it while Koscheck thinks that Daley has just one punch and nothing else.

Josh Koscheck is the UFC 113 odds favorite listed at -250 while Paul Daley is +190.

On Saturday May 8, 2010 Josh Koscheck will fight against Paul Daley in a welterweight battle of contrasting styles. These fighters will have a chance to prove that they are contenders in the welterweight world with a victory at UFC 113 on May 8th.

Paul Daley is a powerful striker. Daley has been incredible as of late, pounding his opponents to the ground in impressive fashion. Though he has lost 8 fights in his career, he has taken his fighting to another level as of late.

In his career Daley has been susceptible to fighters with great wrestling skills. Unfortunately for Daley, Josh Koscheck is one of the better wrestlers of the welterweight division. Koscheck will be looking to take the fight to the ground as Daley is not known for his wrestling skills.

Despite his lack of wrestling skills, it is no easy feat for a wrestler to beat Daley. The problem for wrestlers against Daley is that it is difficult to get him on the ground. A wrestler may try to get on his back to take the fight to the ground, but Daley is known for coming at them hard with an array of punches. The key for Koscheck will be avoiding these punches as he tries to turn this to a wrestling match.

It is difficult to predict an outcome with two contrasting styles like these. If Daley can get some big hits in early he will be take the advantage in this one. However, if Koscheck can get past a few early haymakers he will have a chance to put Daley into submission. This fight may define the career of each fighter as they try to show that they are contenders to Georges St. Pierre, the current champ.