UFC 124 goes this Saturday in Montreal, Quebec with a welterweight title belt between Georges St. Pierre and Josh Koscheck as the main event. Here’s what I think of the main card. The UFC odds list GSP as a prohibitive favorite in the main event as he has been on a dominant run and already has a win over Koscheck.
Thiago Alves (17-7) VS. John Howard (14-5)
Thiago Alves is coming off of two losses that removed him from welterweight title contention and a third loss could move him down to gatekeeper in the division or, more likely given his problems making weight, signal a move up to middleweight.
John Howard suffered his first setback at the UFC last time out losing by Doctor Stoppage to Jake Ellenberger at UFC Live 2.
Stylistically these fighters are quite similar with both being dangerous knockout threats thanks to a background in Muay Thai and both using BJJ primarily to stay out of trouble on the ground. Howard’s stand-up isn’t on the level of Alves though and, while Alves might be better suited to middleweight, Howard isn’t the fighter to stop him. This fight also has a good chance of getting the knockout of the night award.
Pick: Alves (-280)
Mac Danzig (19-8-1) VS. Joe Stevenson (31-11)
Both Mac Danzig and Joe “Daddy” Stevenson were once considered to be potential stars in the UFC’s lightweight division, but both are in desperate need of a win just to keep their jobs. Both of these fighters excel at the ground game.
Stevenson has better and more wins at the UFC, but Danzig has had some success standing up against fighters with similarly strong ground games which makes him worth the risk for a big upset.
Pick: Danzig (+250)
Jim Miller (18-2) VS. Charles “do Bronx” Oliveira (14-0)
Charles “do Bronx” Oliveira lived up to the hype of his first two fights at the UFC by demolishing Efrain Escudero and Darren Elkins, but he faces by far his toughest competition in Jim Miller.
Oliveira has mostly shown himself to be a submission threat at the UFC, but his stand up is dangerous too and he can match up with a well-rounded fighter like Jim Miller.
There is a long history of young fighters like Oliveira getting built up by the fan hype machine and then falling short. Oliveira will be a top fighter in the UFC lightweight division, but that doesn’t mean that he will get there without a few losses first.
Experience likely wins out in this fight, but the value is on the underdog since we don’t really know much about Oliveira yet.
Pick: Miller (+100)
Sean “Big Sexy” McCorkle (10-0) VS. Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve (20-4)
The only heavyweight fight on the main card features Sean “Big Sexy” McCorkle taking on Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve.
These are two of the tallest heavyweights in the UFC and both of these fighters are best on the ground. Struve has beaten all of the lesser fighters he has faced, but couldn’t handle the striking big-name heavyweights Roy Nelson and Junior dos Santos.
It will be interesting how Struve deals with the size and strength of McCorkle. McCorkle isn’t anywhere near the striking threat as Nelson and dos Santos, but he might not need it being able to overpower Struve in the submission game.
Struve is going to score some points with his superior reach and control most of the fight, but I think McCorkle’s power matches up well with Struve’s technique and he scores the big upset winning by submission.
Pick: McCorkle (+120)
UFC 124 Main Event: Georges “Rush” St. Pierre VS. Josh “Kos” Koscheck
GSP already has a victory over Josh Koscheck and has dominated the welterweight division since then. He is the massive favorite going in and deserves to be because, as much as Koscheck’s game has improved since his first loss to GSP, GSP his improved even more.
Standing up, GSP is too dynamic and unpredictable while Koscheck is just the opposite. On the ground, GSP has already shown he can outwrestle the wrestling specialist.
Having said that, this is a fight, not a walk in the park and all the value in this fight is in Koscheck who pays +350. If betting on Koscheck is against your religion, skip this one altogether.
Pick: Koscheck (+300)
