Dan Hardy begins the road to reestablishing himself as a UFC welterweight title contender at UFC 120 against Carlos Condit on Saturday, October 16, 2010 in London, England.

Hardy heads in to this fight as the UFC 120 lines favorite at -165 to Condit’s +135, but this is a fight that could go either way with Condit having the advantage on the ground and knockout ability and Hardy having the advantage on his feet.

The underdog is Carlos Condit (25-5-0 MMA, 2-1 UFC) who has worked his way up to the UFC from WEC and a number of other fight promotions. Condit has shown a willingness to mix it up on his feet throwing punches without regard for his own safety. His biggest stand-up weapon is his kicking, but generally his stand up is more about wearing an opponent out than it is about knocking the opponent out.

Condit has trouble getting takedowns, but once the fight is on the ground he is very dangerous with an arsenal of submissions at his command.

The English crowd will be overwhelmingly behind countryman Dan Hardy (23-7-0 MMA, 4-1 UFC). Hardy has a hard time putting fighters away, but he tends to land a lot of punches going hard at his opponents while remaining in control.

His last match came against Georges St. Pierre with the welterweight title on the line. He should tremendous tolerance for pain getting caught in both and armbar and a kimura, but eventually getting out of both despite the risk of breaking bones.
Hardy is an excellent student of MMA and he is always well-prepared for his opponents. In this fight, he is expecting to use Condit’s recklessness against him.

“[Condit’s] best quality is his persistence. He’s quite tenacious…’Quite’ meaning he’s not as tenacious as me, and that’s where he’s going to fall short, because his tenacity is going to get him in a lot of trouble. ”

Hardy’s takedown defense is pretty solid and, after losing to GSP, he will no doubt be putting even more of an emphasis on training his ground game. Condit will likely have trouble getting Hardy down.

Both of these fighters will likely start out going hard after each other with lots of punches thrown in the first round. Hardy is the better striker and should connect on more carry the early part of the fight. Both of these fighters have excellent conditioning, so later in the fight, when Condit is used to getting his wins, Hardy should be able to hold him off and leave the fight to the judges.

Given the history of decisions for English fighters fighting in England, the decision should go to Hardy unless Condit clearly has a big advantage.